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Don Dodge on The Next Big Thing

Thoughts on business and technology


Microsoft Surface at Sheraton hotelsOctober 24 2008

IMG_1474 I was at the Sheraton Boston last night for an event. In the lobby I saw some people gathered around what I thought was a coffee table, it was a Microsoft Surface computer. This group was checking out the aerial maps to show others where they lived, and to find a restaurant where they wanted to have dinner.

After they left I decided to see what other applications were available on the Surface. There was one that listed all the Sheraton hotel locations along with pictures and maps. There was also an application to find restaurants, tourist attractions, maps, and other information. There was even a music app with pre-loaded music.

IMG_1475 It turns out that Microsoft is working with Sheraton Hotels to see how people will use the new Surface computer. They are now in use at Sheraton hotels in Boston, New York, Chicago, San Francisco, and Seattle.

That reminds me...I also saw a

Microsoft reports strong quarter in turbulent timesOctober 24 2008

Microsoft  (MSFT) announced revenue of $15B for the quarter ended Sept. 30, a 9% increase over the same period last year. Operating income was $6B, net income $4.4B and earnings per share was $0.48 for the quarter.

This was a strong performance in a difficult economic environment. Of course Wall Street immediately looks beyond this to the "guidance" for the next quarter and full year. The guidance was slightly lower than previously forecast, but not much. The stock market reacted favorably moving up in after hours trading.

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Other highlights for the quarter;

  • Microsoft ended the quarter with $20.7 Billion in cash.
  • Microsoft (Office) profit of $3.3 billion on revenue of $4.95 billion.
  • Client (Vista) profit of $3.26 Billion on $4.22 billion in revenue.
  • Server & Tools - profit of $1.15 billion on $3.4 billion in revenue.
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Buy low, Sell high - Warren Buffett does, you can tooOctober 18 2008

Buy low, Sell high is the oldest investment cliche. Sounds simple, but it is very hard to do. Why? Psychology. Two things drive the stock market; fear and greed. Fear is a powerful emotion that causes people to sell investments and seek comfort and safety in cash or gold. There is a lot of fear around today.

Greed is an even more powerful emotion than fear. Fear is temporary, greed is permanent. Greed always overtakes fear. Greed also lulls us into a false sense of security. For most people logic and reason go out the window at both ends of the spectrum.

Warren Buffett says "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful."

Buying low and selling high requires you to buy now when the economy is in a panic and fear is rampant, and sell when things are going great and everyone feels giddily happy. Why would you sell when your stocks are going up every week?

Psychologically it is incredibly difficult to buy now when all the news is bad and everyone is in a panic. It is counter to every safety mechanism we have learned since we were born. It is equally difficult to sell when everything is going great.

But, watch what Warren Buffett does. He isn't buying just any random stock. Buffett is buying General Electric, Goldman Sachs, and other rock solid companies that are at bargain basement prices today.

You make mon

Start a company in a recession? Absolutely!October 17 2008

Now is a great time to start a company. Why? Because great people are available to join you, VCs are loaded with cash, and office space is available cheap. Everything is cheap and readily available in a recession.

Paul Graham says "If we've learned one thing from funding so many startups, it's that they succeed or fail based on the qualities of the founders."  "Which means that what matters is who you are, not when you do it."

In good times all the really great people are busy doing fun projects...and not available to join you in a startup. In bad times projects are cut, people are laid off, and big companies retrench to improving the existing stuff. New projects don't get any budget. So, great people get bored and start looking for the Next Big Thing...a cool startup.

Raising money is a little harder, but not much. Good teams with good ideas can always get VC/Angel funding. In fact, VCs are sitting on tons of cash right now...and they want to invest it in hot new startups. Many VCs are reluctant to dump more money into an existing startup that is struggling, but will invest in a new startup idea. The promise is always more appealing than the reality.

Everything else is cheap and readily available too. Office space is always cheaper and more available in a recession. Existing com

MIT Enterprise Forum on Advertising NetworksOctober 15 2008

The MIT Enterprise Forum of Cambridge will host a panel conversation on October 28th to discuss the re-emergence of advertising networks and their growing role in reaching an increasingly fragmented audience.

I will be moderating the keynote panel which will include leaders from advertising agencies and ad networks. We will explore topics including the impact of new economics for the advertising inventory value chain, targeting methods and the future role of advertising exchanges in the ecosystem. We will also dig deep into how "attention data", the social graph, rankings, ratings, preferences, and click stream data may be used to better target advertisements.

Panelists:

Ron Belanger -VP of agency development for Yahoo. Prior to joining Yahoo!, he was VP of search and affiliate marketing at Carat Interactive (now Carat Fusion).

Daniel Jaye, - most recently president of TACODA and played a critical role in the company's sale to AOL/Time Warner. Prior to TACODA, Jaye was founder, CTO and chairman of Permissus and co-founded and was CTO of Engage.

Dwight Merriman is chairman and co-founder of AlleyCorp, owner of Silicon Alley Insider.  Merriman is also a co-founder and CTO of DoubleClick, one of the first and la